Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s *Absolute Daily Min* for that date, published in the relevant Daily Extract after the day closes. In practical terms, the key number is the lowest one-decimal Celsius reading recorded anywhere in the Observatory’s network for the calendar day, so a programmatic approach should treat the market as an event-driven data scrape rather than a live-weather guess: poll the HKO climatology page, extract the final daily extract once posted, and map the reported value into the market’s temperature band.

The crowd’s 0% YES implies the market is pricing an outcome outside the relevant band, but Hong Kong’s August climate makes a lower print plausible only if there is an unusually cool overnight or an outlier rain-cooled dawn. HKO normals for 10 August put the mean minimum temperature at 26.3°C, while independent climate summaries cluster typical August lows around 27–28°C and historical lows near 26.7°C, so the base rate favours a warm floor rather than a cold one.[7][11][12] For a trader using bots or copy-trading, that means the useful comparison is not “will it feel hot?”, but “does the final minimum land in the narrow interval that the contract resolves to?”

The main catalysts are timing and data publication, not a midday forecast update. HKO’s resolution source is only final once the daily extract is published, and the market cannot resolve until that file appears; around settlement, the practical dependency is whether the Observatory posts the completed August entry promptly after local day-end.[16] Short-range forecasts still help with scenario shaping: current Hong Kong forecasts show a hot, humid day with showers and overnight lows in the low 30s Celsius on some private weather services, which reduces the odds of a very low minimum unless cloud, rain, or a passing disturbance materially changes the overnight floor.[9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.