Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The practical question is whether the Strait of Hormuz can get back to a **7-day average of 60 ship arrivals** on IMF Portwatch before the end of August 2026. That is still a long way above the latest war-disrupted readings: Reuters reported only about three tanker crossings a day in early June, and then just three commodity vessels on 17 July, while a separate tracker said traffic was still far below normal even after brief reopenings.[2][10][13]

For framing, the closest comparable cases in the current cycle point to recovery being uneven rather than linear. Reuters described a sharp uptick in late June, but still only about half of peacetime traffic, and later reported a renewed drop to a multi-week low as security risks rose again.[4][8] That means a trader using a bot or dashboard would normally watch the moving average rather than single-day spikes, because the market settles on IMF Portwatch’s rolling figure, not anecdotal counts or one-off convoy movements.[2][10] In programmatic terms, the useful signal is a sustained regime change in reported arrivals, not isolated transits.

The main catalysts are security and policy, especially any ceasefire durability, naval protection changes, or announcements from Iran, the US, or Gulf states that alter shipper risk calculations. Reuters reported on 4 June that traffic was still only a trickle despite more vessels slipping through, and by 13–17 July it was falling again after renewed strikes and vessel attacks.[2][13] A power-user would want alerts on IMF Portwatch updates, shipping advisories, and major carrier routing statements, because the market can only flip if reported arrivals hold near normal for long enough to lift the 7-day average to the threshold.[2][10][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.