US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying question is whether the United States will refrain from direct military action against Iran for a continuous fourteen-day window before the end of August 2026. The resolution mechanism tracks calendar days from either market creation or the date following the most recent qualifying action, requiring a full fortnight without strikes, airstrikes, or equivalent military operations to trigger a "Yes" outcome. The 0% crowd probability reflects the current operational environment: as of late 2024, US-Iran tensions remain elevated following the October 2023 Hamas-Israel conflict and subsequent Iranian ballistic missile strikes on Israeli territory in April 2024, to which the US responded with air defence support rather than direct Iranian targets.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. The 2020 Soleimani assassination and subsequent Iranian missile strikes on Al Asad airbase created a brief de-escalation window, though sustained fourteen-day pauses have been rare during periods of active regional conflict. The 2015 JCPOA framework represented the longest sustained period of reduced military posturing, but that involved diplomatic architecture absent today. Traders should monitor announcements from the International Atomic Energy Agency regarding Iranian nuclear programme developments, statements from US Central Command, and any escalation in proxy activities in the Red Sea or Persian Gulf, as these typically precede direct action.

For programmatic evaluation, condition orders should track IAEA inspection reports and US Department of Defence press releases as triggering events. The market's resolution dependency on calendar dates rather than event confirmation makes it suitable for automated monitoring systems that flag fourteen-day windows following confirmed action dates, though definitional ambiguity around "qualifying military action" may create settlement disputes requiring manual review.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.