Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s settlement will hinge on the single highest reading logged at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport in Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table on 10 August, not the broader day-high summary. At 05:00 UTC the station was already warm and humid, with Weather Underground showing 80–81°F in the early morning and 84°F by 11:00 local time, while BBC observed 999 mb and falling pressure at the airport, conditions that can accompany a more changeable convective day.[1][9] In Celsius terms, that puts the market in the low-to-mid 30s if the day follows Wuhan’s normal August heat profile.[6][16]

Historically, August is Wuhan’s hottest month, with average highs around 32.5–34°C and frequent readings above 30°C; several references put the monthly record high at about 41°C, so the ceiling is materially above ordinary summer warmth.[3][6][7][18] For a programmatic read, the key variable is whether the airport station reaches the upper-30s or stalls in the low-30s, because the market resolves to a temperature band rather than an exact print. With the crowd at 0% YES, the pricing implies the current tape is not yet reflecting the day’s peak observation cadence, which is often where late-morning and early-afternoon uploads matter most.[1][11]

The main catalysts are the live airport observations, any update lag on Weather Underground, and whether showers or cloud cover suppress the noon-to-afternoon climb. AccuWeather’s same-day outlook pointed to afternoon rain and a high around 85°F/29°C, while AQI.in also showed patchy rain nearby and a much cooler daytime profile, both of which would cap the eventual Daily Observations maximum if they verify.[14][19] A power-user approach is to poll the station page directly, track the timestamp of the highest observation, and avoid relying on the summary high until the table has clearly printed the day’s peak.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.