Highest temperature in Taipei on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s peak temperature on 10 August will be set by the highest reading captured at Songshan Airport, and the market resolves from Weather Underground’s *Daily Observations* table rather than the summary high/low box. That matters for automation: a tracker should poll the observation table through the day, normalise Celsius values, and watch for late uploads or revisions before the first datapoint for 11 August is published. The crowd-implied 0% for YES is therefore a statement about the current book, not a weather guarantee.

Historically, Taipei’s early-August highs cluster in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with Weather Journey listing a 10 August average high of 32.8°C and a record high of 38.0°C, while Time and Date gives an August average high of 33°C. Forecast services for today point to around 32.6–34°C, with some showing showers or thunderstorms and humidity remaining high, which is consistent with a city where short-lived afternoon spikes can still push the day’s maximum above the headline forecast. For a power-user running conditional orders or a bot, the useful framing is not “will it be hot?”, but whether the day breaches the next discrete bucket around 33°C, 34°C, 35°C or higher.

The main catalysts are the morning-to-afternoon temperature ramp, any convective rain that trims the ceiling, and the timing of the final station observation published by Weather Underground. Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration, as reflected in market-linked forecast commentary, had already flagged cloudy skies, showers and a high precipitation probability for Taipei, which tends to suppress the top end unless sunshine breaks through for long enough. A programmatic setup should therefore re-price only on actual observed highs, not forecast headlines, and should keep polling until the resolution source’s final update window has closed.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

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