Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s temperature on 10 August will be decided by the highest reading at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, using Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high-and-low line. That matters for programmatic monitoring because the target is a specific station, a specific date, and a specific source field, so a bot or conditional order should key off the intraday observation feed and not the headline daily high. Weather Underground’s Shanghai history page shows how the station data is presented, including the time-stamped temperature rows used for resolution.[6][15]

The current **0% YES** price is only weakly anchored by climate context, because early-August Shanghai often reaches the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and can spike higher. Recent history in Shanghai shows August highs around 33–35°C, with some days materially hotter, such as 38°C on 8 August 2024 in one historical dataset and 35.5°C on 10 August in travel climatology tables.[7][8][14] For traders, that means the market is less about whether Shanghai is hot in August and more about whether the airport station’s peak observation lands inside a particular resolution band, which is the sort of setup that favours precise rule parsing over broad weather intuition.[6][15]

The main catalysts are the hourly observation sequence, any late-afternoon convective heating, and whether rain or storms suppress the peak before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Shanghai’s forecast sources around 10 August have highlighted very high humidity, heavy rain or flash-flood risk, and strong winds, all of which can cap the maximum temperature or shift the daily peak earlier in the day.[12][18] A power-user approach would be to poll the station record repeatedly, compare the live maximum against the market’s temperature bands, and avoid relying on the generic daily summary if it diverges from the observations table.[6][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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