Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer temperatures in August regularly exceed 30°C, with daily highs frequently reaching the mid-to-high 30s Celsius. The settlement mechanism here requires careful attention to data sourcing: Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, rather than the Day High & Low summary, will determine the outcome. This distinction matters operationally because automated systems pulling weather data must query the correct endpoint; a bot relying on the summary section would produce incorrect resolution inputs. For programmatic traders, this means validating your data pipeline against Wunderground's API structure before August 2026, confirming which table feeds your conditional orders or settlement verification scripts.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon International Airport show a median daily high around 29–31°C, though heat waves push readings into the 35–37°C range roughly once per decade. The current 0% probability on higher temperature brackets suggests the market has not yet priced in typical August volatility or exceptional heat events. South Korea's meteorological agency publishes extended forecasts from early August onwards; traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's heat wave alerts and the Asian summer monsoon patterns, which influence August conditions across the Korean peninsula. Recent years have seen August heat intensify—2023 saw Seoul record 33.1°C on multiple days—making historical baselines less predictive than seasonal trend analysis.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.