Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s temperature for this market is being judged off the **highest reading at Incheon Intl Airport Station**, not the more visible day-summary high, so a programmatic trader should scrape or monitor the *Daily Observations* table directly and treat that as the only settlement input. With the market currently at **0% YES**, the crowd is effectively pricing an outcome outside the listed Celsius bins, even though nearby guidance has been pointing to a hot but still ordinary August peak rather than an extreme outlier. AccuWeather’s monthly outlook for Seoul shows a forecast high around 93°F/34°C for 10 August, while the platform page for the market itself has cited KMA guidance near 34°C and a model cluster around 33–35°C.[1][2]

That framing matters because recent Korean heat has been very real, but the settlement target is a single station’s observed maximum, not the citywide impression. Reuters reported South Korea’s heatwave peaking over Seoul on 6 August with the capital forecast near 39°C, after the country logged record-breaking readings elsewhere, which explains why traders may anchor too hard on national headlines rather than the airport station outcome.[10][11] For a bot or conditional-order workflow, the practical edge is to watch the live observation feed into the afternoon UTC window, then compare the final daily table entry against the bucket boundaries before the following day’s first datapoint appears, since later revisions are excluded by market rules.[2]

The main catalysts are meteorological rather than calendar-based: cloud cover, easterly winds, and any afternoon shower band that trims insolation will decide whether Incheon stays in the low 30s or nudges higher. KMA’s short-range forecast is the relevant operational input, while the market description confirms that only updates published before the next day’s first datapoint can change the result.[4][2] For a power-user, the clean setup is to poll the forecast, then switch to the observation table shortly after the local afternoon high is likely to print, because the settlement outcome is determined by the *largest* value recorded in that table, not by the headline summary.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.