Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the highest observed temperature at Dallas Love Field on 9 August 2026, measured from the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table rather than any summary display. For a power-user approach, the practical workflow is to poll the station page programmatically, capture the maximum Fahrenheit value in the observations feed, and lock the outcome only once the first reading for the following day appears and no further revisions are expected. The current crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests traders are treating the condition as effectively already decided or outside the relevant range, but that can only be assessed against the actual Weather Underground record, not forecast snippets.[8][14][3]

Historically, Dallas sits in a hot late-summer regime, so outcomes in the upper 90s to low 100s Fahrenheit are common enough to matter for probability bands. The National Weather Service’s climatological data for Dallas/Fort Worth shows a normal daily maximum of **97°F** for 9 August, with a record maximum of **108°F** for that date, while recent Dallas weather pages show highs near **100°F** around this period and past-observation pages confirm the city is often already running in the mid-to-high 90s by early evening.[4][2][1] For modelling, that means a bot should weight the distribution around the seasonal normal while allowing for tail-risk into the low 100s.

Catalysts to watch are the day’s official observation cadence, any late revisions to Weather Underground history, and the point at which the next date’s first datapoint is published, because that is when settlement-grade data effectively becomes fixed.[14][8] If you are wiring alerts or conditional orders, the useful trigger is not the forecast headline but the appearance of the final maximum in the Daily Observations table and any discrepancy versus the summary high, since the contract specifies the table as the primary source. Recent forecast material from the National Weather Service and AccuWeather indicates an August pattern still near 100°F, which helps explain why traders focus on realised station data rather than intraday heat index chatter.[6][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.