Highest temperature in Beijing on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at the Capital International Airport meteorological station and reported through Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The settlement mechanism explicitly prioritises the granular observation data over the summary high-low figures, which matters for traders building automated resolution checkers—the two sources occasionally diverge by 0.5–1.0°C due to timing and averaging methodologies. This specificity requires programmatic access to the correct data feed rather than reliance on the public-facing summary view.

August in Beijing typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. Historical August records at the airport station reach 40.4°C (set in 2015), though such extremes occur roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific threshold ranges offered or treating this as a calibration exercise for a market with wide temperature bands. Comparable markets on Beijing summer temperatures show meaningful probability mass across 28–35°C ranges, with sharper drops above 36°C.

Traders monitoring this market should track China Meteorological Administration forecasts released 7–10 days prior to settlement, which feed into international weather models. The North China Plain experiences monsoon influence in early August; tropical systems tracking northward can suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems drive sustained heat. Real-time data validation requires direct API access to Weather Underground's station feed rather than screenshot verification, particularly given the resolution source's explicit emphasis on the Daily Observations table hierarchy.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.