Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s airport weather on 10 August will be judged by the **highest observed temperature** in the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table, so the live question for a programmatic trader is the peak print before midday UTC rather than the broad headline forecast. On seasonal norms, early-to-mid August in Beijing is typically hot: published August averages cluster around the low-30s Celsius, with daily highs around 30–33°C and occasional spikes into the mid-30s[2][4][5][9][17][19].

The current 0% crowd price is hard to square with the forecast range available this morning. Forecast services put Beijing around **33–34°C** today, with AccuWeather showing 93°F/75°F and timeanddate showing 91°F/65°F, both consistent with a hot, mostly sunny day[3][8][14]. Historical comparables for 10 August also sit close to that band, with typical highs near 31°C and recorded extremes in the mid-30s Celsius, so a settlement range materially below the low-30s would need an unexpectedly cool day or a data-source quirk[4][5][10][11][12][15].

For hands-on monitoring, the useful catalysts are not press releases but the intraday observation feed: hour-by-hour temperature updates, cloud cover, wind shifts, and any sudden rain or haze that suppresses the afternoon maximum. A bot or conditional order can key off the airport station’s observed values as they print, since the market resolves from the table itself and not the summary box; in practice, the highest reading often arrives around local early-to-mid afternoon unless convection or cloud build-up caps the day earlier[3][6][8][14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

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Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

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