Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport temperature on 1 August is a straight intraday weather outcome: the market resolves on the **highest reading** logged at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in Celsius, and the practical question for traders is whether the day prints into the low 30s or gets lifted by a hotter afternoon spike. August normals in Guangzhou are already elevated, with average highs around 33°C and a humid, rainy profile that often keeps maxima close to the low-to-mid 30s rather than extremes[1][11][18].

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd price a notable outlier against climate history. Long-run August data place Guangzhou’s typical high around 32–33°C, while some August days in recent seasonal summaries have reached the mid-30s and occasionally above 36°C[2][5][20]. For a power-user running a script or conditional order set, the key edge is that a binary “above/below band” view is usually more robust than treating this as a single-point temperature call: the settlement source is a station reading, not a city-wide average, so local convection and airport-specific conditions matter more than general Guangzhou forecasts[12].

The main catalysts are the same ones a programmatic watcher would ingest: the day’s rolling forecast updates, afternoon convective rain or cloud cover, and any synoptic change that suppresses heating before the late-day maximum. Short-range forecast products currently show August highs for Guangzhou clustering around 89–93°F, which is roughly 32–34°C, so a run-up into the settlement window would usually need a warmer-than-average afternoon and limited rain-cooled downdraft[9][10]. Because the market settles on the Wunderground station record for the whole day, the useful workflow is to poll the station history page for the latest max, compare it with forecast highs and precipitation timing, and adjust only when the airport’s observed trend starts to diverge from the broader city forecast[12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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