Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Parliamentary elections to elect Sweden’s 349 Riksdag members will occur on 13 September 2026, with the newly elected parliament subsequently appointing the next Prime Minister. The market currently shows 0% probability for any specific individual, yet real-time odds on Polymarket indicate Magdalena Andersson holds 76% support, followed by Ulf Kristersson at 23%[3]. This stark divergence between the crowd-implied zero and active trading odds mirrors historical Swedish election markets where early liquidity often misprices until poll trends solidify, as seen in the 2022 election where initial uncertainty resolved decisively once coalition arithmetic became clear[2].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor daily PolitPro poll updates, which currently show Socialdemokraterna leading at 32.4%, with Sverigedemokraterna at 19.4% and Moderaterna at 17.2%[2]. Key catalysts include the Swedish Election Authority’s security protocols against foreign malign information, announced recently by the Government to protect the 2026 vote[5], and any snap election triggers that could reset the parliamentary term[1]. Conditional order bots should track coalition negotiation announcements post-13 September, as the Prime Minister is elected by the Riksdag, not directly by voters, making post-election parliamentary arithmetic the definitive resolution driver[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.