Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 9 August 2026 will be whatever the Hong Kong Observatory later records as the “Absolute Daily Min” in its Daily Extract, so the market is driven by the morning minimum rather than the daytime high. Because the settlement source reports to one decimal place in Celsius, programmatic traders will usually map the published value directly into the market’s temperature bands once the extract is finalised.[1][17]

The current 0% YES price is easy to read against Hong Kong’s August climate: the Observatory’s normals for 9 August show a daily minimum around the mid-20s Celsius, while broader climate references put August lows near 26–27°C and highs in the low 30s.[2][5][10][17] That makes the market structurally one-way unless an unusual cool spell, heavy rain, or a tropical-system disruption produces a materially lower overnight minimum than the seasonal baseline.[12][19]

For a hands-on setup, the key inputs are the Observatory’s forecast pages, any warning signals, and the timing of the Daily Extract publication, since the market cannot resolve until the official data is posted.[1][3][19] A practical workflow is to watch the Observatory’s text forecast and regional readings through the night, then trigger conditional orders or bot checks only once the final extract lands, rather than trading off unofficial apps that may show rounded or model-based values.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.