Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight low on 8 August is the number that settles this market, using the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)** for the day. The key practical point for traders is that the market does not resolve from a live weather app or a forecast feed; it waits for the Observatory’s published daily extract, so any programmatic setup should poll the official climate page or a mirrored data source only after the extract is finalised.[6][16]

For context, August in Hong Kong is typically a very warm month, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normals putting the 8 August mean minimum at **26.9°C** and the mean temperature at **29.0°C**.[1] Other historical August datasets also point to typical lows in the mid-to-high 20s Celsius, which is why the crowd’s 0% YES on an outcome outside that band implies a very narrow tail expectation rather than a broad uncertainty set.[4][8][15]

The useful catalysts are the Observatory’s morning and daily bulletin cadence, plus any late changes from rainfall, cloud cover, or overnight winds that can pull the minimum down before dawn. The current official forecast for 8 August 2026 pointed to a minimum near **28°C**, with mainly fine and hot conditions, light winds, and moderate humidity, which is consistent with the market’s front-loaded clustering around the upper-20s outcomes.[16] For a hands-on workflow, traders typically automate around the final published extract rather than the forecast text, because only the finalised daily readings determine settlement.[6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.