Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature for 6 August will be the Hong Kong Observatory’s **absolute daily minimum** for the city, reported to one decimal place once the Daily Extract is finalised. August in Hong Kong is normally hot and humid rather than cool: the HKO climatological normals put the average minimum at **26.8°C** for 6 August, with mean temperature **28.9°C** and mean maximum **31.6°C**.[1][15]

That seasonal baseline matters because the market is effectively a one-day tail read on the overnight cooling outcome, not on the daytime high. The crowd-implied **0% YES** suggests the market is treating a very low threshold as unlikely, which is consistent with August climatology and recent August summaries showing typical minima around the upper 20s Celsius, even in unsettled conditions.[1][4][13] For programmatic trading, a sensible setup is to map each possible settlement band to the latest HKO observation logic and refresh against the published daily extract rather than intraday weather apps, since this contract resolves only after the observatory posts the final data.[15]

The main catalysts are the HKO’s observation and publication cadence, plus any short-notice weather systems that suppress overnight temperatures, such as widespread rain, cloud cover, or tropical disturbance effects. Reuters reported that Hong Kong saw exceptionally heavy August rainfall in 2025, illustrating how monsoon-driven events can materially alter daily weather patterns even in a normally warm month.[18] A practical workflow for bots or conditional orders is to watch HKO advisories, then poll the climatology page for the completed daily extract and compare the published minimum against the market’s temperature bands, rather than relying on forecast headlines alone.[15][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.