Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on 5 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final **“Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)”** in the Daily Extract, so the practical question is whether the station gets a warm overnight low or a sharper drop from rain and cloud. The market is not about the day’s daytime heat; it resolves on the single lowest reading recorded at the Observatory site, to one decimal place, after publication is finalised.[10]

For framing, August in Hong Kong is usually a hot, humid month, and the climatological normal minimum for 5 August is **26.8°C**.[4] Recent comparables show that the Observatory can print lows in the mid-20s even on a very wet day: 5 August 2025 reached **24.0°C** as heavy rain and persistent cloud held temperatures down, while 5 August 2020 fell to **24.9°C** during downpours.[1][9] Against that backdrop, a crowd-implied **0% YES** for a sub-range outcome implies the market is effectively pricing the observed low as firmly inside the hotter bands, not near the cooler tail.

For a power-user workflow, the key inputs are the Observatory’s forecast discussion, warning signals, and the timing of the daily climatological extract, because the settlement source is retrospective rather than live. The current market page itself points to overnight lows around **26–27°C** under cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms tied to a monsoon trough, which is consistent with the hotter outcomes leading the book.[3] A programmatic setup would watch for late-evening forecast downgrades, typhoon or thunderstorm signal changes, and any revision in the Observatory’s published daily extract before the market can resolve.[18][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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