Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, and this market captures the daily maximum temperature recorded at Tianhe International Airport. The settlement mechanism hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the summary Day High & Low section—a distinction that matters when automated feeds pull data at different intervals or when station instruments report conflicting readings. For programmatic traders, this means validating the exact source URL and understanding that Weather Underground's observation timestamps may lag behind real-time displays by several hours.

Wuhan's August temperatures cluster consistently between 32–36°C based on thirty-year climate records, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–39°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish a baseline. Historical August data from the same airport station shows that temperatures above 38°C occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 31°C are exceptionally rare. Traders should cross-reference archived daily maxima from 2015–2025 to calibrate their position against seasonal volatility and any structural shifts in local urban heat patterns.

Watch China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which typically provide ten-day outlooks with confidence intervals. Regional weather systems—particularly the East Asian summer monsoon intensity and any tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea—will influence whether Wuhan experiences typical August conditions or an anomalous heat event. Conditional order logic should account for the settlement window closing at midday UTC on 11 August, meaning final observations may arrive after market resolution, requiring traders to monitor both real-time station feeds and Wunderground's historical archive updates.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.