Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution tied to the specific hourly reading rather than the summary high-low figures. This distinction matters for automated resolution: the Daily Observations granularity allows for precise timestamp matching, whereas the Day High & Low section aggregates differently and may produce discrepancies when temperatures spike briefly during afternoon hours.

August in Tokyo typically peaks between 32–35°C, with occasional excursions toward 37°C during heat waves. Historical data from the Japan Meteorological Agency shows that extreme heat events—those exceeding 38°C—occur roughly once every three to five years in the Kanto region. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that sits above typical August conditions; without visibility on the exact range brackets, this signals either a very high bar or uncertainty about which bins the market has defined. Programmatic traders would benefit from cross-referencing Haneda's historical August records against the settlement brackets before committing capital.

Seasonal forecasting becomes actionable in mid-July when Japan's meteorological agency issues extended outlooks. El Niño or La Niña conditions influence Pacific jet streams and can shift August temperatures by 2–3°C region-wide. Traders should monitor the JMA's monthly forecast updates and any tropical cyclone activity in late July, as typhoon proximity can suppress temperatures significantly. API-based weather data feeds from Weather Underground allow for continuous monitoring of the Daily Observations table as August approaches, enabling conditional orders triggered by specific forecast thresholds.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.