Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 11 August 2026, Tokyo's highest temperature will be measured at Haneda Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market resolves to a specific temperature range bracket based on that single data point, with resolution prioritising the granular Daily Observations figures over any summary high-low display that might differ. For programmatic traders, this distinction matters: automated feeds pulling from Weather Underground's API must target the correct endpoint to avoid settlement disputes, and any conditional order logic should account for potential lag between real-time observations and final recorded values.

Tokyo's August temperatures have historically clustered between 32–36°C, with extreme heat events pushing toward 39–40°C occurring roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing in an unusually cool August or reflecting uncertainty about which temperature bracket will ultimately resolve. Comparable August days at Haneda show high variance depending on typhoon activity and pressure systems; 2023 saw peaks near 35°C whilst 2010 reached 39.9°C. Historical volatility means the current probability assignment warrants scrutiny against seasonal forecasts.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts issued in late July 2026, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or tropical systems approaching the Kanto region. Haneda's coastal location moderates extremes compared to central Tokyo, a factor often overlooked in casual temperature predictions. Real-time tracking of upper-air patterns and Pacific high-pressure positioning in early August will signal whether conditions favour typical summer heat or anomalous cooling.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 11? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.