Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest reading on 1 August will be set by the warmest observation at Haneda Airport, so the practical question is whether the day tops out in the low, mid or upper 30s Celsius before the settlement cut-off. Tokyo’s August climate is already hot and humid, with typical monthly highs around 31–34°C and occasional spikes into the mid-30s, while the city’s all-time August peak is 37.3°C. [2][10][14]

The current 0% YES implies the market is not yet pricing the specific outcome range, but programmatic traders usually anchor on the daily forecast envelope rather than the monthly average. Recent Tokyo August weather pages show daytime highs commonly in the mid-80s to upper-80s °F, with occasional days reaching the low- to mid-90s °F, which maps to roughly 29–35°C and leaves the tail risk in the 36°C-plus buckets on particularly strong heat days. [1][4][11]

For a hands-on workflow, the main inputs are the live Haneda observations, the official forecast path, and the settlement source’s update cadence, because the market resolves to the highest recorded temperature for the full day rather than a single forecast snapshot. Traders running bots or conditional orders would typically watch for early-morning runs, midday heating, and any sudden changes in cloud cover, rainfall or sea-breeze conditions, since Tokyo’s July–August heat can still produce a late-afternoon peak even after a modest start. [11][12][16]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.