Highest temperature in Taipei on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the **highest recorded temperature at Taipei Songshan Airport** on 9 August, with resolution tied to the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low display. For a programmatic setup, the cleanest approach is to poll the station page, parse the day’s observation rows, and lock the maximum Celsius reading once the settlement window closes; that matters because the market resolves to the *range* containing the top observed value, not to a forecast number or app-facing headline.

The current 3% yes price is low relative to Taipei’s August climatology, which is normally hot and humid, with average highs around the low 30s Celsius in weather guides and historical summaries.[5][6][12][16] At the same time, today’s forecasts in the market data point to heavy rain or “not as hot” conditions, with highs around 30–31°C rather than extreme heat, which supports a skew away from the upper temperature bands.[2][10][13][15] For traders using bots or conditional orders, the useful analogue is not “will Taipei be hot?”, but “will a single observed reading at RCSS clear the next bracket up?”—a much narrower problem.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual observation cadence and any weather interruptions that suppress afternoon heating, especially heavy rain, overcast conditions, or typhoon-related rainfall mentioned in current forecast pages.[2][10][14][15][16] A power-user workflow would monitor the live observations table during local daytime, compare it with forecast products, and trigger alerts when the running maximum approaches a band threshold. Because the source is a station-specific historical log, the most relevant dependency is the final published observation set rather than broader Taipei city forecasts or airport app summaries.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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