Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's highest temperature on 11 August 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and reported through Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market resolves to a specific temperature range bracket, with settlement occurring at midday UTC on that date. Resolution hinges on the granular station data rather than summary forecasts, requiring traders to verify readings directly against the primary source rather than relying on secondary weather summaries.

Historical August temperatures in Shanghai cluster between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a sub-threshold outcome or insufficient liquidity attracting serious participation. Comparable markets on Shanghai summer extremes typically see meaningful movement only when typhoon systems or unusual atmospheric blocking patterns enter the forecast window—conditions that remain unpredictable beyond a fortnight. Current probability positioning offers little signal about meteorological likelihood; instead it reflects market thinness.

Traders monitoring this market should track the China Meteorological Administration's 10-day outlooks and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, both of which influence August heat distribution across eastern China. Weather Underground's API integration allows programmatic polling of historical station data and current forecast models, enabling conditional order logic tied to specific pressure or humidity thresholds. The settlement window's noon UTC cutoff means traders must account for Shanghai's timezone offset when timing data collection, as the highest daily temperature typically occurs mid-afternoon local time.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.