Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Incheon International Airport’s hottest reading on 6 August will be set by a short-lived afternoon peak, not the day’s average weather, so the key variable is whether the airport station briefly touches the upper end of the forecast range before sea-breeze moderation or showers kick in. Seoul-area forecasters are calling for exceptional heat on 6 August, with Seoul around 39°C and Incheon around 38°C, while current hourly guidance shows cloudy, humid conditions with intermittent rain and temperatures in the high 20s to low 30s Celsius through the day.[2][3][14][15]

For a market priced at 0% YES, the historical frame matters: August is normally hot in Seoul, but average highs are much lower than the present heatwave setup, and early-August extremes can still hinge on whether the local station records a single reading above the market’s target band. WeatherSpark puts Seoul’s highest average daily high in early August at about 85°F, while recent reporting notes Seoul has exceeded 39°C only once in the modern record, on 1 August 2018, which shows how far into the tail this kind of outcome sits.[13][11] Programmatically, a trader would treat this as a range-lookup problem against the Wunderground daily maximum for RKSI, polling the daily history page after the settlement window and mapping the reported high into the market’s bands.[1]

The practical catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates, any changes to the heatwave warning, and the timing of showers or thunder that could cap the airport’s maximum before the daily peak. SBS and Asiae both reported a continuing heatwave emergency warning for the Seoul metropolitan area on 6 August, with very high perceived temperatures and daytime highs near 38–39°C, but also enough humidity and intermittent rainfall to create local volatility in the actual station reading.[2][3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 6? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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