Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The actual settlement variable here is the **highest temperature at Incheon International Airport** on 3 August, so the cleanest way to track it is to monitor the Wunderground daily history page and compare the day’s observed peak with the market’s resolution bands. The current crowd price of 0% YES implies the market is either misread or frozen in a regime where traders expect no qualifying print, but the underlying weather setup does not support that interpretation: Korean media reporting on 2 August and 3 August points to a broad heatwave, with Incheon forecast around **34°C** and Seoul around **37°C**, while nationwide highs are expected to range from the low 30s to upper 30s.[5][3][1]

For historical framing, August in Seoul and nearby Incheon is normally hot and humid, with typical highs around the upper 20s to low 30s, but individual spikes into the mid-30s are common in heatwave periods.[16][19][2] That matters for a programmatic trader because the market is not about the city headline forecast, but the airport station’s observed maximum, which can differ from downtown Seoul by a degree or two and can be clipped by coastal influence, cloud cover, or rain bands. Recent forecasts from Korean outlets show a hot, mostly clear start to the month, with the North Pacific high suppressing rainfall across much of the peninsula, which usually makes intraday highs easier to verify and less likely to be revised down later.[8][1]

The main catalysts are the timing of any afternoon showers around the west coast, the strength of the heat advisory, and whether the airport station records its peak before convective cloud builds or sea-breeze moderation sets in. Traders using bots or conditional orders would typically poll the source page through the day, watch for KMA updates and local forecast revisions, and only then map the observed Celsius value to the correct band at settlement. In practical terms, the edge is in the exact station reading rather than the city forecast: a 33–34°C airport print keeps the market in a different bucket from a 35–37°C inland-style surge.[12][5][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 3? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.