Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's summer temperatures regularly exceed 30°C, with August typically the hottest month of the year. The Incheon International Airport weather station, which serves as the official resolution source, has recorded daily highs consistently in the 28–34°C range throughout August in recent years. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary section matters operationally: automated systems querying the API must target the correct endpoint to avoid settlement disputes. For programmatic traders, this means hardcoding the specific table reference rather than relying on parsed summary fields, which occasionally lag or round differently.

Historical August data from Incheon shows the station has recorded temperatures above 33°C on roughly 60–70% of days in the month over the past decade, with occasional peaks near 35°C during heat waves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests the market's range options sit above typical August maximums, or traders are heavily discounting the likelihood of extreme heat on that specific date. Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts, typically issued 10 days in advance, will be the primary catalyst for position shifts; traders should monitor their official seasonal outlooks and any tropical system activity in the Western Pacific, which occasionally influences Korean peninsula weather patterns in mid-August.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.