Highest temperature in NYC on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event this market tracks is the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 22 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Weather Underground data. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range being wagered on, likely the 76°F to 77°F bracket noted in active listings[2].

Historical context frames this probability sharply: June 2026 has seen daily highs in New York ranging from 75°F to 88°F, with LaGuardia’s average high for the month hovering near 82.9°F[7]. On 21 June, the station recorded a high of 79°F, just below the historic average but well above the 76–77°F threshold[6]. Even on 22 June at 7:40 pm, temperatures were already 72°F, indicating the day’s peak likely occurred earlier and may have exceeded the narrow range[3]. This pattern suggests the 0% probability reflects a mismatch between the market’s range and typical June peaks, not an expectation of cold weather.

A programmatic trader would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for KLGA, cross-referencing with National Weather Service timestamps to confirm the daily maximum[5]. Catalysts include any sudden shifts in wind direction or precipitation, as LaGuardia saw 80% chance of rain and highs near 78°F on recent days[9]. Traders should also watch for updates from the NWS climatological report, which lists the record high for this period as 98°F in 2012, far exceeding current market ranges[5]. No announcements are pending, but the settlement window closing on 22 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC demands precise data ingestion before resolution[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.