Jordan vs. Algeria

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jordan and Algeria meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, with kick-off listed for 23:00 UTC and settlement tied to the result before 03:00 UTC on 23 June. Algeria’s exchange price has been stronger than Jordan’s on the available odds, while the crowd-implied **24% YES** suggests the market is assigning a relatively modest chance to the specific outcome this market tracks, rather than treating the fixture as evenly balanced. [3][4][5]

For context, Jordan are making their first World Cup appearance in 2026 and have already taken points on the board in the tournament, which matters because debut sides often trade differently once they have live match data rather than only pre-tournament reputation. Their opening-night breakthrough against Austria is a useful comparator for model-based traders: live team strength estimates can move sharply after one or two real tournament performances, while older head-to-head records are a weaker guide here because FIFA’s match-centre and broadcaster listings show no prior World Cup meeting between these sides. [1][2][5]

For a power-user running this programmatically, the main catalysts are lineup confirmation, injuries, and any late rotation driven by group-state incentives, because those inputs can shift probabilities more than venue noise at this stage. The most actionable feeds are FIFA’s match-centre for official line-ups and kick-off status, plus broadcaster and venue pages for schedule certainty; ESPN’s market snapshot also shows how the pricing stack is already set around Jordan, Algeria and the draw, which is the sort of input you would wire into conditional orders or bot-triggered hedges shortly before kick-off. [2][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Jordan vs. Algeria on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.