Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak Fahrenheit temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 5 July 2026, with settlement depending on Wunderground’s daily high for that specific station. A programmatically minded trader would script a bot to poll the Wunderground API hourly, extracting the maximum value and comparing it against the market’s resolution ranges to execute conditional orders before the 12:00 UTC deadline.

Historical data frames the current 0% YES probability as a mispricing, given LaGuardia’s recent record-breaking heat. The airport recently hit 102°F on a Thursday, with midnight temperatures reaching 94°F, shattering the 2013 record of 93°F [2][4]. Climate normals show a maximum of 100°F recorded in 1999, while July 2026 has already seen LaGuardia and Newark hit 104°F [6][8]. This thermal history suggests the market should assign significant probability to ranges above 80°F, not zero.

Traders must monitor the National Weather Service’s daily climate product for LaGuardia and any heatwave advisories from the East Coast, as these dictate the intensity of the day’s peak [6]. Recent reports confirm LaGuardia’s unprecedented warmth, with heat indexes soaring as dew points remain in the 70s [8]. A power-user would track these dependencies in real time, adjusting conditional orders as the forecast evolves, rather than relying on static probability models that ignore the current extreme trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.