Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 94% |
| Brazil O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| O/U 1.5 | 79% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 72% |
| Brazil 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Norway O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Team to Advance | 67% |
| Both Teams to Score | 59% |
| O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Brazil 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Brazil O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| Brazil 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 35% |
| O/U 3.5 | 32% |
| Norway O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 30% |
| Brazil (-1.5) | 28% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 27% |
| Brazil O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 22% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 21% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 19% |
| Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| O/U 4.5 | 16% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 13% |
| Brazil (-2.5) | 12% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 11% |
| Norway O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Norway (-1.5) | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 7% |
| Brazil (-3.5) | 5% |
| Brazil (-4.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 3% |
| Norway (-2.5) | 2% |
| Norway (-4.5) | 2% |
| Brazil (-5.5) | 1% |
| Norway (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Norway (-3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 94% chance of brazil vs. norway - more markets. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 5 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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