Highest temperature in NYC on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event centres on the peak temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 July 2026, a date historically prone to extreme heat in New York City. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for any outcome below 92°F, mirroring the market behaviour seen on 1 July 2026, where the frontrunner was decisively 92–93°F at 100% probability[1][2]. Historical records reinforce this trend: LaGuardia reached 101°F on 2 July 1966, while Newark Airport hit 103°F on the same date in 1901[6]. AccuWeather’s forecast for July 2026 at LaGuardia predicts daily highs spanning 81°F to 99°F, suggesting that temperatures below 92°F are statistically marginal[5].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time dependencies via Wunderground’s API, which serves as the official resolution source for this market[4]. Key catalysts include the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KLGA, which track temperature and dew point fluctuations critical for short-term forecasting[3]. Recent news highlights dangerous, record-breaking heat waves possible across New York and New Jersey, with forecasts indicating sustained high temperatures that could push readings beyond 95°F[6]. Traders should also watch for conditional order triggers tied to the 12 p.m. temperature spike observed at JFK Airport on 2 July 2026, which already reached 100°F, indicating a broader regional heat event[7]. Settlement concludes at 12:00 UTC on 2 July 2026, requiring precise data ingestion before the window closes[9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.