Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Portugal O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 75% |
| O/U 1.5 | 74% |
| Team to Advance | 71% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Croatia O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 52% |
| Portugal O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Croatia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 40% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 32% |
| Croatia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| Portugal (-1.5) | 30% |
| O/U 3.5 | 27% |
| Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | 27% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 26% |
| Portugal O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 24% |
| Croatia O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 19% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 17% |
| Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 17% |
| Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout? | 15% |
| Portugal (-2.5) | 13% |
| O/U 4.5 | 13% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Croatia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| Croatia (-1.5) | 6% |
| Croatia O/U 2.5 | 6% |
| Croatia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 6% |
| Portugal (-3.5) | 5% |
| Croatia (-4.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 5% |
| Portugal (-4.5) | 4% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Croatia (-2.5) | 1% |
| Croatia (-3.5) | 1% |
| Portugal (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Croatia (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 93% YES probability for Portugal vs. Croatia - More Markets. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 2 at 7:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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