Highest temperature in NYC on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key real-world event is the **highest recorded temperature at LaGuardia Airport on 8 August 2026**, with settlement tied to the Weather Underground *Daily Observations* table rather than any summary high-and-low panel. That means a programmatic read should target the station-specific daily log for KLGA and treat the first published datapoint for 9 August as the practical cut-off for late revisions, because the market rules say later changes after that point do not count.[3][10]

A **0% YES** crowd price is only plausible if traders are mapping the contract to an outcome that has already been pinned down or effectively capped by observed station data. On comparable NYC summer-temperature markets, the main driver is not citywide feel but the station’s actual maximum; LaGuardia’s reported 89.1°F at 20:26 UTC on 8 August in WeatherSpark’s feed shows how close late-day updates can sit to the final bracket, while AccuWeather’s monthly view also had 89°F as the day’s figure for 8 August, which is consistent with a warm but not extreme outcome.[2][1][3]

For a power-user, the tradeable catalysts are the **final station observations, any late convective surge, and any data-latency risk** around the Weather Underground log. The best workflow is to poll the KLGA daily observations page around the settlement window, compare the highest reading against the market’s Fahrenheit bands, and only then size exposure or place conditional orders; if the airport records a late spike or a revised maximum before the next day’s first datapoint, it can change the correct bucket, but once that next-day datapoint appears, the range should be locked for resolution.[3][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.