Highest temperature in NYC on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport** on 3 August, with the result settled from the day’s peak reading rather than an afternoon snapshot. Polymarket’s current book is already indicating a fairly tight clustering around the low-to-mid 80s, with the 82–83°F and 84–85°F bands together carrying most of the visible weight, while the 0% crowd-implied YES figure suggests the market is either mispriced at the tail or no longer reflecting the latest weather inputs accurately.[1]

For historical framing, August in New York City is usually hot but not extreme enough to make a mid-80s maximum unusual, and recent third-party forecasts for this date have pointed to highs around 30°C/86°F or slightly lower, which is consistent with the market’s leading bins.[2][9] A programmatic trader would typically treat this as a range-selection problem: pull the latest daily forecast, compare it with climatological normals and nearby station readings, then watch whether a late-day convective burst or marine influence trims the final airport high by a degree or two. That matters because the settlement source is the airport station itself, not a citywide average.[12][13]

The main catalysts are the final National Weather Service and airport-observed updates into the afternoon and evening, plus any revision to the day’s hourly observations before the first reading for 4 August is published.[1][12] In practice, a bot or conditional order set would be keyed to the latest forecast high, dew point, and thunderstorm timing, since clouds or showers can cap the maximum, while a clear, humid afternoon tends to lift the last observed temperature into the 84–87°F bands.[1][7] Recent coverage of intense heat in New York also shows how quickly airport readings can jump when a broader warm spell is in place, which is why traders often monitor LaGuardia specifically rather than relying on Manhattan forecasts alone.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.