Highest temperature in Munich on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the **highest temperature** recorded at Munich Airport on 1 August, with the market settling against the daily maximum reported by Wunderground for EDDM. For a programmatic trader, that means the key variable is not an hourly average or city-wide estimate, but the single top reading that appears on the station’s daily history page before the settlement cut-off.

A 1% crowd-implied chance points to a very low expectation of an exceptional heat spike, which is consistent with Munich’s August climatology. Long-run climate pages put the city’s typical August high around the mid-20s Celsius, while historical extrema are much higher: Munich’s all-time record is about 37°C, and an August record of 37°C is also cited in historical summaries. More granular Munich station tables show recent August peaks in the mid-30s, such as 34.7°C in 2023 and 34.5°C in 2022, which are useful comparables for judging how often the top bucket can be reached.[2][5][17]

For a hands-on trading workflow, the useful catalysts are the forecast revisions and the station’s observed afternoon maximum rather than any calendar event. A bot or conditional-order setup would typically watch a high-resolution forecast feed, then compare the implied peak against the market’s range buckets and the settlement source page; if later model runs shift the expected maximum by even a few degrees, that can change which interval is most likely to contain the final reading. Munich’s August averages from weather services remain warm but not extreme, with typical highs around 24°C to 25°C and some rainfall and cloud-cover risk that can cap daytime heating.[1][4][6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.