Highest temperature in Miami on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami’s reading on 6 August will come from the **highest hourly observation** at Miami International Airport on Weather Underground, so a trader screening this programmatically should target the day’s full observation feed rather than the summary high. The live market is pricing a broad summer peak around the high 80s Fahrenheit, with 88–89°F the leading band and 86–87°F the main alternative, which implies the crowd sees a fairly normal hot-season outcome rather than an extreme spike.[2]

That framing fits Miami’s August climatology: AccuWeather’s monthly page shows historical averages around **90°F/78°F**, while WeatherSpark describes August as a persistently hot, very wet month, which tends to cap upside through cloud cover and afternoon convection rather than through cool mornings.[1][12] For comparison, the current market is anchored below the kind of rare 92°F+ days seen in some recent summer observations, including early-August highs in the low 90s reported elsewhere for Miami in 2026.[4]

A power user would watch the National Weather Service forecast cycle, radar trends, and any short-notice thunderstorm timing, because in Miami the actual peak often depends on whether sunshine holds into early afternoon before showers break the heating. Polymarket’s own description also makes the cut-off important: revisions count only until the first datapoint for the following date appears, so automated monitoring should poll Weather Underground’s daily observations near the end of the settlement window and stop once the next day’s first entry is published.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Miami on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.