Highest temperature in Manila on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the warmest reading logged at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table, so a programmatic setup should poll that table rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure. With the market currently at 0% YES, the implied view is that traders expect either no reliable observation yet or a value that is still far from the listed resolution bands, but the live weather context points to a humid, rainy monsoon day rather than a clean heat spike.[11][14]

For framing, August in Manila is normally warm and wet: AccuWeather’s month outlook shows highs around 85–90°F, with an average August high of 87°F, and today’s forecast clusters around 85–86°F with showers and thunderstorms.[1][2][4] Comparable August climatology also puts Manila’s average high near 88.9°F, which is roughly 31.6°C, while forecast services for this week lean a little lower, mostly in the high 20s Celsius.[8][9][10] That means the probability distribution for the market is best read as a race between a middling 29–31°C print and any brief midday break in cloud cover.

The catalysts worth watching are the monsoon pattern, the timing of the airport station’s updates, and whether afternoon convection allows a short-lived rise before rain returns. PAGASA has highlighted occasional rains across Metro Manila from the southwest monsoon, while Weather Underground’s station page shows the latest report cadence in local time, which matters because the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, not midnight in Manila.[11][12] For a bot or rules-based trader, the useful trigger is the first verified Daily Observations entry that covers the day’s post-morning warming, then any later revision before the next day’s first datapoint publishes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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