Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 5 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This single data point will determine which temperature range resolves the prediction market, with the official figure sourced from the Observatory’s finalized “Daily Extract” once published.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs around 31.7°C (89°F) and recorded peaks reaching 35.7°C in July 2018[6]. The month of July 2022 was the hottest since records began in 1884, surpassing even July 2020[9]. Given this consistent thermal intensity, a 0% YES probability implies the market expects the temperature to fall below the lowest defined range—likely under 27°C—which contradicts decades of climatological evidence where July minimums rarely dip below 27°C and daily highs consistently exceed 30°C[8].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather bulletins and the release schedule for the “Daily Extract,” as resolution cannot occur until this data is finalized[4]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 37°C and 35°C (87°F–95°F), with overnight lows of 26°C–28°C (79°F–82°F)[1]. A programmatically sound approach would involve parsing the Observatory’s climatological API for real-time updates, setting conditional orders based on temperature thresholds, and cross-referencing with AccuWeather’s July 2026 forecast to validate model assumptions[1]. Any deviation from expected ranges—such as a sudden cool front or unseasonal cloud cover—would be the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.