Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading on 6 August will be the Observatory’s **absolute daily maximum** in degrees Celsius, published later in the daily extract rather than inferred from a forecast. For a programmatic workflow, the cleanest approach is to treat the event as a single numeric datapoint, then map that value into the market’s temperature bands once the final extract appears; until then, any model output is still only a forecast of the final print.

The crowd price at 0% YES implies the market is not currently assigning material weight to a very hot final reading, but August in Hong Kong is climatologically capable of extreme highs. The Observatory’s long-term normal for 6 August puts the mean maximum at 31.6°C, while recent August reports have shown Observatory maxima in the mid-30s, including 34.4°C on 10 August 2025 and a 35.4°C hottest-day reading reported that July by local press. That combination means the left tail is not negligible if a heat ridge builds, but the market still needs an actual Observatory print, not city-wide warmth or app-based forecast ranges.[3][4][2]

A trader watching this through bots or conditional orders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily weather pages and the timing of the final “Daily Extract”, because the settlement source is explicit and the market cannot resolve until the 6 August data is published. In practice, the key catalysts are late-afternoon or evening updates to the Observatory’s records page, any heat warnings or typhoon-related disruption that changes cloud cover and rain coverage, and whether nearby forecasts converge on upper-20s to low-30s maxima rather than a mid-30s spike. App-level forecasts such as AccuWeather currently sit around 31°C to 32°C for the day, which is useful for screening but not enough for settlement logic.[5][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.