Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport’s daytime high on 4 August will be the settlement input, so the key question is whether the airport station posts a peak close to the city’s August norm or whether convection and heat push it into a hotter band. Chongqing is one of China’s hottest large cities in summer, with August typically averaging about 34°C for daily highs, and historical summaries put 4 August around 34.6°C, which makes the mid-30s the practical reference zone for range mapping.[1][10]

For historical framing, the market’s current 0% implied chance on a specific range looks detached from the climatology unless the target bucket is unusually high. Long-run data show August as Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 34°C and extreme city-level readings reaching 39–43°C in peak events, while wider historical records include an all-time high of 43°C in 2022.[6][3] For a programmatic trader, the useful approach is to model the airport station’s daily maximum against the seasonally elevated baseline, then overlay rainfall probability and cloud cover; even a small shift in afternoon rain timing can move the final peak down several degrees.[1][10]

The main catalysts are local heatwave persistence, afternoon thunderstorm development, and any forecast change for rainfall near the airport window, because the market settles on the highest recorded temperature rather than an average. Recent reporting has already noted Chongqing residents seeking shelter as a heatwave hit the city in early August 2025, underlining how quickly readings can reach extreme values when the regional pattern stalls.[17] In practice, traders using bots or conditional orders would monitor hourly forecast updates, radar trends, and the Wunderground station page through the day, then reprice only when the maximum becomes likely to fall into a different Celsius band.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.