Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The key event is the **highest air temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 10 August 2026**, with settlement tied to the Weather Underground **Daily Observations** table rather than any headline daily high. For a programme or bot tracking this market, the cleanest approach is to poll the observation feed through the day, store each new reading with timestamps, and map the latest maximum to the listed Celsius bands as soon as the first datapoint for 11 August appears.

Historical context favours a hot-day outcome: multiple climate references place **August** as Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around **33–35°C** and occasional extremes far above that. Long-run sources note August averages near 33.6–35°C, while heatwave peaks have reached **43°C** in the city’s history, so the market’s current pricing around the mid-30s is consistent with seasonal norms rather than an outlier.[3][7][13][17] By comparison, a **0% YES** crowd read usually signals either stale positioning or an instrument whose target band is very unlikely under the latest weather setup.

The immediate catalysts are the day’s forecast evolution, any thunderstorm timing, and whether the airport observation stream prints a brief early peak before cloud and rain suppresses the afternoon maximum. AccuWeather’s forecast for Chongqing on 10 August points to **95°F/79°F** with **periods of clouds and sunshine and a couple of thunderstorms, especially early in the day**, which matters because a short-lived morning spike can settle the market even if later rain arrives.[11][15] In practice, a trader using conditional orders or copy-trading should watch the live airport observations, not citywide forecasts, because the resolution source rewards the single highest validated reading, not the expected daytime high.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.