Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 3 August will be set by the highest reading recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the practical task is to track the intraday maximum rather than the daily mean. In seasonal terms, early August is usually still hot: Chengdu’s August average high is around 29.8–31°C, with 3 August itself typically near 29–30°C, and long-run August record highs have reached the high 30s to low 40s Celsius depending on the dataset used.[2][3][9][11]

That history matters for reading a 0% crowd-implied “YES” on a specific temperature range, because a binary-style band can be very sensitive to the exact afternoon peak and to whether the airport briefly spikes above the usual climatology. Chengdu is often humid and rain-prone in August, with about 210–318 mm of monthly rain across roughly 13–14 days, which can suppress maxima on some days but does not rule out sharp heat if sunshine breaks through.[2][11][14] For a trader automating this market, the useful pattern is to map the forecast max against the market’s temperature buckets, then watch for any run-up in the latest airport observations rather than city averages.[13]

The main catalysts are the same ones a programmatic workflow would ingest: hourly observations from the Wunderground airport page, short-range forecasts, and any sudden shift from convective rain to clearer afternoon conditions. If the airport stays under cloud and rain, the upside ceiling is lower; if the day opens dry and hot, the maximum can be set quickly before evening cooling matters. Because settlement is tied to the day’s highest recorded temperature at that station, the key dependency is not the 24-hour average but the single intraday peak that Wunderground logs for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.