Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s peak temperature for 1 August will be taken from the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport station, so the practical task is to track the day’s maximum rather than any citywide average. August in Chengdu is usually hot and humid, with typical highs around 29–31°C and daily peaks that can push into the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, so the settlement outcome depends on whether the airport observation reaches an unusually warm reading after sunrise and before the reporting day ends in UTC terms.[1][2][12][16]

The current 0% YES price looks anchored to the market being opened on the settlement day rather than to any strong climate signal; in programmed terms, that often means the right workflow is a rules check, not a weather forecast. Historical August data show Chengdu regularly posts highs around 30°C, with record extremes far above that in some years, while the airport’s own daily history is the relevant source of truth for the final bucketed outcome.[3][4][13][16] For a bot or conditional order setup, the key comparison is the eventual Wunderground maximum against the market’s temperature ranges, using the station’s daily high as soon as it is available.

The main catalysts are the afternoon warming cycle, cloud cover, rainfall, and any late-day convective showers, because these can cap the maximum even when the morning starts warm. Chengdu’s August climate is monsoonal, with frequent rain and high humidity, and travel-weather references describe the month as warm to hot with substantial precipitation; that makes intra-day weather evolution more important than the monthly average.[2][9][12][16] A trader watching programmatically would typically poll the Wunderground history page and compare the evolving high against the settlement bands, then avoid relying on broader city forecasts unless they are cross-checked against airport-specific observations.[13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.