Highest temperature in Busan on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan’s afternoon high on 1 August will be taken from the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, so the practical question is whether the day posts a routine early-August maximum or an outlier heat spike. For market users running scripts or bots, the cleanest approach is to poll the Wunderground daily history page in Celsius and map the day’s peak into the market’s settlement bands once the final value is fixed.

The base rate for early August in Busan is already hot: climate reference pages put average highs around 28–31°C, with the city’s hottest month usually August and humidity high enough to keep temperatures sticky rather than dry. That makes a 0% YES price hard to read as a meteorological view and more likely a function of market mechanics, because the actual outcome can still land in a surprisingly wide band if sea breezes or rainfall cap the daily maximum. Recent regional heat has shown Busan can reach extreme highs, with a report of 38.8°C in late July 2026 and another source saying southeastern South Korea had its hottest temperatures in 122 years, so tails remain in play even on a coastal station.[18][19]

A trader watching catalysts should focus less on formal announcements and more on intraday weather dependencies: cloud cover, precipitation timing, monsoon remnants, and whether overnight warmth leaves little room for a strong daytime climb. Programmatically, a useful workflow is to watch the hourly forecast from the previous evening, compare it with the observed morning trend at Gimhae, and then update any conditional orders if the forecasted ceiling moves across a settlement threshold. In late-summer Busan, the main risk to a high-temperature bet is not cold air but rain-cooled air and marine moderation, which can pull the day’s maximum below otherwise plausible heat-model estimates.[5][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.