Highest temperature in Beijing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Capital International Airport’s peak temperature on 3 August is likely to be set by a narrow daytime window rather than an all-day heat build-up, because August in Beijing is typically hot, humid and interruption-prone, with showers or thunderstorms often cutting the top off the daily maximum. Current forecast material for early August points to highs around 33–37°C for Beijing, while city-level official forecasts for 2–3 August show 32°C with thunderstorms on 3 August, implying that a brief clearing or delayed convection is the main route to a higher reading at the airport station.[2][3][5]

For a market at 0% YES, the practical read-through is that the listed temperature band is probably well above what the crowd thinks the airport will actually print, not that a hot outcome is impossible. Beijing’s August climatology sits around 30–31°C average highs, with some long-range sources still showing 30–32°C norms and occasional days in the mid-30s, so the distribution is broad enough that a single short-lived spike can matter if rain arrives late.[6][8][14][16] Programmatically, a trader would track the Wunderground daily history page, scrape the “highest temperature” field, and update a live probability model against nearby forecast grids rather than relying on one headline max.[5]

The key catalysts are the timing and intensity of convection, cloud cover and any shift in the regional high-pressure pattern over northern China. Near-term guidance from forecast providers and city bulletins suggests thunderstorm risk remains in play for Beijing, which can suppress the daily extreme by keeping the boundary layer mixed and cooler; if showers are delayed, the airport can still see a sharper midday or early-afternoon peak.[3][5][7] For automation, that means watching hourly forecast revisions, airport observations and precipitation timing, then comparing them with the settlement source’s station-specific reading rather than the broader Beijing forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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