Trump out as President by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump ceasing to be President before July 31, 2026, is the real-world event underpinning this market, with crowds currently assigning only a 1% probability to resignation or removal. Historically, no US president has ever resigned or been removed via impeachment during their term; Richard Nixon resigned before impeachment proceedings concluded, while Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton and Trump himself were all impeached but acquitted by the Senate[2][3]. Trump’s unique legal profile—being the first president convicted of felony crimes after leaving office and twice impeached yet acquitted—frames why removal remains improbable despite ongoing legal scrutiny[1][3].

Traders should monitor scheduled judicial events, particularly Trump’s sentencing on 26 November 2024 for falsifying business records, and any Supreme Court rulings on presidential immunity that could influence future prosecutions[1][6]. A catalyst for market movement would be an official announcement of resignation or invocation of the 25th Amendment, though temporary incapacity does not qualify under this market’s rules[7]. Recent reports indicate Trump and allies are exploring legal avenues to expunge his impeachments from official records, suggesting active efforts to stabilise his political standing rather than exit[5]. Programmatic approaches to this market would involve conditional orders triggered by news feeds announcing resignation or removal, with bots filtering for permanent versus temporary cessation of office.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Trump out as President by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.