National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

Platform comparison

Market context

Duncan Chan’s match with Thiago Agustin Tirante in the National Bank Open is the kind of market where the tape is thin and the pricing is often driven more by eligibility, draw status and last-minute scheduling than by a deep head-to-head record. Chan’s public profile suggests a young Canadian with limited ATP-level sample size, while his results have been concentrated below tour level and mostly on hard courts, which is the relevant surface here.[1][2][6][13]

For a programme trader, the 0% YES print mainly flags that the market is currently treating this as effectively unresolved rather than genuinely near-certainty. In comparable low-information tennis markets, the fastest repricing usually comes when a player’s entry is confirmed in the live draw, when the order of play is posted, or when a withdrawal or walkover changes the settlement path. Chan’s college record points to a player who has been active and winning regularly in team tennis, but that does not by itself tell you whether he is the intended entrant for this specific ATP match.[3]

The practical catalysts are administrative rather than stylistic: official draw updates, schedule changes, and any tournament communication about postponement or cancellation. The market rules also matter programmatically, because a match not played at all, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner, settles 50-50, so bots watching for scoreboards should also watch for draw feeds and cancellations rather than just live point data. Tirante’s exact participation should be checked against the latest tournament slate before assuming the market can settle on court.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track National Bank Open: Duncan Chan vs Thiago Agustin Tirante across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.