Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
91% | 9% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
91% | 9% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 91% |
| Belgium O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 74% |
| O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 68% |
| Senegal O/U 0.5 | 66% |
| Team to Advance | 61% |
| Belgium 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 54% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 48% |
| Senegal 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 45% |
| O/U 2.5 | 45% |
| Belgium O/U 1.5 | 40% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 39% |
| Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 38% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| Senegal O/U 1.5 | 29% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 25% |
| O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Belgium (-1.5) | 21% |
| Belgium 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 18% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Belgium O/U 2.5 | 16% |
| Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 12% |
| O/U 4.5 | 11% |
| Senegal (-1.5) | 10% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 10% |
| Senegal O/U 2.5 | 9% |
| Belgium (-2.5) | 8% |
| Senegal 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| O/U 5.5 | 4% |
| Senegal (-2.5) | 3% |
| Belgium (-3.5) | 3% |
| Senegal (-4.5) | 3% |
| Belgium (-5.5) | 3% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Senegal (-3.5) | 1% |
| Belgium (-4.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Senegal (-5.5) | 0% |
Market context
Belgium vs. Senegal - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 91%. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for July 1 at 4:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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