Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 40.5 | 76% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 36.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Match O/U 38.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 75% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 Winner | 73% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 Winner | 66% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard | 56% |
| Completed Match | 51% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 45% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 20% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 6% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Set 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. This market refers to the tennis match between Yannick Hanfmann and Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to '…
Methodology
We track Wimbledon ATP: Yannick Hanfmann vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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