Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
77% | 23% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
77% | 23% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Match Winner | 77% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 69% |
| Game 1 Winner | 68% |
| Game 2 Winner | 68% |
| O/U 3.5 Games | 68% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 68% |
| Game 3 Winner | 67% |
| Game 4 Winner | 62% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) | 60% |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 53% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 52% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 52% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? | 52% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 52% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 51% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 51% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 49% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 44% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2? | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1? | 39% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3? | 38% |
| Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) | 31% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4? | 31% |
| O/U 4.5 Games | 30% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 28% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 28% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 27% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 11% |
Market context
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In — current market-implied probability: 77%. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…
Methodology
We track LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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